The path of least resistance misses the EU climate target: Experts identify hidden risks and opportunities

The European Green Deal aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% compared to the reference year 1990. The decision on the EU's 2030 climate target for the path to climate neutrality in 2050 is more than just a political declaration of intent. The experts from the Ariadne energy transition research project have analysed the EU Commission's key scenarios. They pointed out that the implementation of the new targets could be jeopardised if an uncoordinated mix of instruments is used. The EU Commission has put three policy paths up for debate. The researchers analysed these scenarios in terms of their short- and long-term feasibility and their target achievement.

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The first scenario comprises the intensification of regulatory measures in the area of renewable energies and energy efficiency. However, there is a risk that deep interventions will be made in national energy structures and that legal concerns will arise on the part of the member states. Nevertheless, this scenario offers a high probability of long-term target fulfilment, provided that the EU Commission's enforcement mechanisms are tightened.

Another scenario focusses on CO2 pricing. Emissions trading must be greatly expanded in the shipping (within the EU), buildings and transport sectors. A fair and socially just design of CO2 pricing is necessary for this. A standardised CO2 price for all member states and sectors could serve as a target-oriented and cost-efficient guiding instrument.

Finally, the continuation of the existing policy with familiar regulatory principles is analysed. This scenario only works if the partially overlapping and possibly conflicting instruments are harmonised with each other. Without forward-looking integration into the EU policy package, the usual mix could fail to achieve the climate target due to conflicting measures.

Experts recommend a credible policy mix that is based on clear regulatory principles. A guiding instrument such as carbon pricing is particularly important. A continuous adjustment mechanism and independent scientific review are essential. Otherwise, the Green Deal could stall in the first few metres.

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